Tropical Storm Ampil Aims for Shanghai, China This Weekend!

Broadly organized Tropical Storm Ampil is moving slowly northeast over the western Pacific. Although conditions overall are not favorable for rapid intensification, Ampil is expected to strengthen slowly as it turns northwest. Later this weekend Ampil could be a typhoon threatening the region around Shanghai, China.

Ampil is currently being disrupted by larger upper level systems nearby. This disruption will gradually lessen over the next few days. Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures are warm enough to support intensification. However, the layer of warm water is shallow. The winds and waves generated by the storm are tending to mix cooler water to the surface, limiting the energy available for the cyclone to feed on. As the storm speeds up, this cooling effect could diminish.

Model guidance suggests Ampil will turn north and then northwest from Friday into Saturday, passing very close to or over the Japanese island of Okinawa. By Sunday morning Ampil is expected to be a minimal typhoon approaching the Chinese mainland. Most models indicate a landfall south of the Shanghai metro, but we can’t rule out a direct strike at this time. Wherever landfall occurs, expect flooding rainfall and gusty winds!